| 潘长春,黄禹喆,刘金全.碳排放约束政策风险的宏观经济冲击与货币政策应对[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2025,(6):5-25 | | 碳排放约束政策风险的宏观经济冲击与货币政策应对 | | Macroeconomic Impacts of Carbon Emission Constraint Policy Risks and Monetary Policy Responses | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 碳排放约束 政策风险 货币政策应对 | | 英文关键词: Carbon Emission Constraint Policy Risk Monetary Policy Response | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 绿色低碳转型是实现经济高质量发展的必然趋势。为了积极稳妥实现“双碳目标,政府将进一步采取强有力的政策措施,助力绿色低碳经济深入发展。但也存在未来碳排放约束政策实施的不确定性、模糊性和不可预测性所带来的风险。本文结合理论分析与实证检验,剖析碳排放约束政策风险的传导机制,考察其对宏观经济的冲击效应，并探讨货币政策应对碳排放约束政策风险的调控效果。研究发现,碳排放约束政策风险将在资本层面抑制投资与融资规模,在生产层面造成产出下降与通货紧缩。在高金融摩擦条件下,碳排放约束政策风险的冲击水平更高。货币政策可以缓冲碳排放约束政策风险的不利影响,调控效果随着市场机制完善更加有效。因此,确保碳排放约束政策实施进程的稳定性和透明度,并制定更有针对性的货币政策熨平碳排放约束政策风险冲击,是中国经济高质量发展的有益选择。 | | 英文摘要: | | China’s green and low-carbon transition, an inevitable trajectory for safeguarding climate ecosystems and fostering new productive forces, underscores the dual imperative of ecological protection and high-quality economic development. Amid this shift, the nation has progressively established a policy and institutional framework to advance a low-carbon economy, remarkably bolstering its capacity to address climate change. However, as the government intensifies efforts to achieve its ambitious “dual carbon” goals—carbon peaking and carbon neutrality—through robust measures, a critical challenge emerges: the inherent uncertainty, ambiguity, and unpredictability of future carbon emission constraint policies introduce significant policy risks. These risks, reverberating through the macroeconomic landscape, pose potential disruptions to diverse market actors and trigger broader economic fluctuations.Therefore, this study systematically investigates the transmission mechanisms and impact pathways through which carbon emission constraint policy risks affect China’s macroeconomy, employing several econometric tools—the Bayesian structural vector autoregression (BSVAR) model, the regime-switching model, and the TVP proxy VAR model—to dissect these dynamics.The analysis reveals multifaceted impacts across economic dimensions. At the capital level, policy risk shocks stemming from carbon emission constraints suppress investment and financing scales—a contractionary effect that ripples through resource allocation. Moreover, at the output level, these shocks precipitate declines in production and engender deflationary pressures, with the industrial sector bearing a disproportionately heavier burden compared to the household sector—a disparity that underscores sectoral vulnerabilities. Further complicating this issue, the regime-switching model reveals that under conditions of high financial friction, the adverse macroeconomic repercussions of policy risk intensify, amplifying the negative shock magnitude. In parallel, the TVP proxy VAR analysis reveals a mitigating role for monetary policy: by strategically adjusting interest rates and money supply, the central bank can partially alleviate the deleterious effects of these policy-induced shocks, offering a buffer against economic instability.This study makes several distinctive contributions to the literature, interweaving empirical rigor with theoretical innovation. First, it quantifies the policy risk shocks embedded in China’s low-carbon transition. This is a novel perspective that departs from prior studies, such as those by Xu Jia and Cui Jingbo (2020) or Yang Hao et al. (2023), which predominantly evaluated the efficacy or shortcomings of carbon neutrality targets and specific emission policies. By focusing on the uncertainty and variability of future policy implementation, this study, rooted in a forward-looking risk assessment, enriches the discourse on policy uncertainty in green transitions. Second, it constructs a theoretical model delineating the transmission channels of carbon emission constraint policy risks—an analytical framework that not only elucidates the cascading effects across capital, output, and sectoral domains but also equips policymakers with a diagnostic tool to anticipate and mitigate risks in the low-carbon paradigm. Third, and perhaps most innovatively, this study probes the regulatory efficacy of monetary policy in counteracting these risks, diverging from extant research, including Wang Bo and Song Yufeng (2020), Lamperti et al. (2021), and Dafermos and Nikolaidi (2021), which often framed such issues through the prism of macroprudential regulation or financial oversight. Recognizing that policy risks in green transitions are inescapable, this study posits that central banks, beyond mere preventive supervision, must actively deploy monetary instruments to stabilize capital flows and production, thereby smoothing macroeconomic volatility.In synthesizing these findings, the study offers both theoretical grounding and empirical evidence to inform the scientific identification of policy risks in China’s green and low-carbon transformation. Its conclusions, buttressed by dynamic econometric modeling, provide actionable insights for optimizing the central bank’s monetary policy framework—a tailored strategy to cushion the economy against the shocks of carbon constraint policies. By bridging the gap between policy uncertainty analysis, macroeconomic impact assessment, and monetary policy calibration, this study not only advances academic understanding but also offers a robust foundation for policymakers navigating the complex interplay of ecological ambition and economic resilience. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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